| As Iran prepares to hold its majles (parliamentary) elections on Mar. 14, the Islamic fundamentalist establishment continues to cull reformists from the vote. During the last several months crackdowns on rallies have pressured supporters of reformist movements and now, according to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, the Interior Ministry has blocked over 2000 candidates, mostly reformists, from running for the legislative body’s 290 seats. Though the government claims these disqualifications are on legal grounds, it seems to be a move to keep the conservative majority in power.
A power shift in the majles could set the stage for a reformist presidential candidate in 2009, much like the conservative shift in 2003 helped Mahmoud Ahmadinejad take power in 2004. But given the fate of reformist movements, such a shift is unlikely. According to Amnesty International, dozens of students and other supporters of reformist movements arrested in December and January are still being held without cause at Evin Prison north of Tehran. Allegations of torture at the prison are rampant and as recently as January a student arrested by the government died shortly after being taken into custody. Despite a February decree by the Iranian judiciary that bans arrest without cause, such arrests and torture are unlikely to stop. Agence France-Presse reported the decree reads that authorities should "Refrain from summoning people without sufficient proof, [and] refrain from holding people under arrest without pressing charges." Such an announcement, however, may represent unrealistic hopes when viewed in the light of those who actually hold power at this time. Tehran’s current mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, is a former Brigadier General in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. According to Iran Focus, when Qalibaf was still in the IRGC he co-authored a 1999 letter to then-president Mohammad Khatami urging the use of “every available means” to put down a pro-democracy student protest movement, or the Corps “would take matters into their own hands.” Since becoming Tehran’s mayor, many residents complain that police often conduct raids, beatings and arrests — that people “disappeared” if they were involved in trying to bring about lasting reformist change. In the context of these recurrent incidents, it is clear the disqualification of reformist candidates is yet another move by conservatives to hold power. AFP reported that Iran's former-president Mohammad Khatami called the mass disqualification a “catastrophe” for democracy and is evidence of a widening rift between the Iranian people and the Iranian state. Among those disqualificatied was Ali Eshraghi, the grandson of deceased leader of the 1979 Iranian revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Though this may be a surprise disqualification, Eshraghi has gained a reputation as being outspoken against military involvement in politics. Both Qalibaf and Ahmadinejad are former military members. In addition to trying to hold power within their borders, the conservative government is also trying to reinforce its regional alliances. With the United States in effect encircling Iran with its occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran has solidified its ties with Russia as that country re-asserts itself on the global stage as the ideological, economic and military rival to the US. Most notably, Russia has supplied the nuclear fuel for Iran’s reactor that is expected to start producing power this summer. Though Russia has taken notice of a recent test launch of a long-range missile, ostensibly part of a space program, as a possible nuclear weapons program, they show no signs of trying to distance themselves from the Islamic government. In fact, in late January Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty reported that Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Saltanov proposed a possible “regional security system that will take into account the interests of all littoral states and interested countries.” Such an organization would offer a Russian-led alternative to the United States' influence in the region. If a reformist majority were to take power in the parliamentary elections, it would certainly influence both this sort of development as well as Iran’s 2009 presidential election and its overall relationship with the West. The certainty that seems to surround a conservative hold on power in Iran is contrasted by the uncertainty about whether a conservative or more liberal candidate will take power in the US’s own presidential election in November. France's Le Monde newspaper reported that Ahmadinejad is watching the US election. According to the newspaper, he said that "if there were free elections in the United States, if the American people had various choices, not just two, we think they would opt for a different policy than the one implemented now by the United States." That policy is openly antagonistic towards Iran. In addition to the 2002 declaration by President Bush that Iran was part of an “axis of evil,” there has been a more recent development that indicates even a Democratic-led congress may continue in this anti-Iranian stance. In September, 2007 the US Senate voted on a nonbinding ammendment to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. All three of the leading US presidential candidates — Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Barack Obama — were senators during this vote. Clinton voted for the amendment, while McCain and Obama both missed the vote. Clinton adopted up a hawkish position, but she is not likely to be outdone by McCain, who infamously answered a question last year about possible military action against Iran. In news reports and in video clips around the Internet it is clear he quips, "That old, eh, that old Beach Boys' song, 'Bomb Iran': Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, anyway, ah … " Of the three, the only one who is interested in direct diplomatic negotiation with Iran, regardless of whether reformist or conservatives are in power, is Obama. He recently gained the support of former Secretary of State Colin Powell, whose own diplomatic approach to foreign affairs led to his ouster from the Bush administration. In a recent interview, Powell said, in reference to Obama’s and Clinton’s opposing positions, "You have to talk to folks that you may not necessarily like, and you can't put down impossible preconditions for conversations." It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Iran’s Islamic fundamentalist government will stay in power in the Mar. 14 elections, but that government’s future relationship with the West will have much to do with the outcome of the US’ own 2008 election — as if it wasn't heated enough.
2008 thecampusword.com
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